Connect your plan, risk budget and decision journal
Size a hypothetical position and evaluate the process separately from the outcome.
Separate three different quantities
Notional value is the value represented by a position. Modelled monetary risk is the estimated loss to the protective exit, including assumed costs. Funds required to open the position depend on the instrument. They are not interchangeable.
Without costs, quantity equals the risk budget divided by the entry-to-stop distance. A wider stop at the same budget means a smaller position. A protective order does not guarantee the estimated loss under adverse execution.
Include trading costs
Fees can apply on both sides. Slippage depends on liquidity, order size and conditions. Ignoring them can make the loss at the stop larger than the intended budget.
The study calculator reduces quantity using your cost assumptions. It is not an exchange-specific quotation. Real use would require lot increments, minimum order size, order type and contract details.
Assess the decision before the outcome
A profit does not prove a good decision and a loss does not prove a poor one. First check whether predefined conditions existed and size followed the plan; then review the financial outcome.
Separate what you observed, what you inferred, what would invalidate the idea, how you executed and what happened. This makes recurring process errors easier to identify without rewriting the explanation after the result.
A practical exercise
Review ten observations using only information available before each decision. Compare expected and actual costs and note rule changes. Ten cases are a journaling exercise, not proof of an effective strategy.
Choose one measurable process improvement, such as saving a pre-entry screenshot or resizing after changing a stop. Check compliance in the next set of observations without promising yourself a specific return.
Methodology references
General references for planning and position sizing. They do not validate this invented setup or GASFINA’s performance.
CME Group · Risk Management and Your Trade Plan ↗CME Group · Proper Position Size ↗Educational material. Market outcomes are uncertain and trading can cause losses. GASFINA does not manage client funds.